Jurgen Klopp’s six-year tenure as Liverpool manager has been defined by many elements, including the success of his attacking front three trio. Yet, for those behind the scenes, Klopp’s Merseyside career will be remembered for the unique way it started — because of a mathematical model.
The Science Behind Sports
In European football, the use of analytics and data is present, but not in the same way as its North American counterparts. For instance, in the English Premier League, subscription platforms like Sky Sports present tactical analysis and highlight things like a team’s possession percentage. Similarly, online casinos and sportsbooks, which contributed to Great Britain’s gambling industry generating a gross gaming yield of £14 billion in 2018, offer fractional and decimal odds based on the analysis of ongoing in-game stats. For example, individuals can bet on football at Space Casino, a UK online casino and sports betting website that offers match and outright odds. Liverpool, for instance, has outright odds of 23/5 to win the Premier League this season, while Tottenham has odds of 69/1.
Football in North America also presents tactical and betting analysis. However, its use of systematic computational tools extends past broadcasting and gambling. Ever since the Oakland Athletics baseball team implemented the ‘Moneyball’ approach in the 2000s, almost every North American sport uses an analytical, evidence-based approach to building a team. For perspective, Oakland’s Moneyball strategy emphasized using statistical analytics over traditional scouting methods that represent a 19th-century view of the game. One of the most notable cases is Boston Red Sox owner John Henry implementing the Moneyball approach to break the 1919 Curse of the Bambino. The method worked, and the Sox went on to win the World Series four times.
Moving Across The Pond
Evidence the Moneyball approach could work in European football came after Henry’s company took over Liverpool in 2010. When the time came to replace manager Brendan Rodgers in 2015, Henry wanted to use a mathematical approach similar to Moneyball to find his replacement. Cambridge physicist Ian Graham created the method; it selected Jurgen Klopp.
Since then, we’ve seen glimpses of the Moneyball method in European football. Most notably is Pacific Media Group using it to guide Barnsley F.C. Despite having a rough few campaigns, the club executes the main pillars of Moneyball and that helped them reach the playoffs last term. The approach is about going against outdated rules, and so, while big clubs use traditional scouting and sporting directors lead transfer windows, Barnsley relies on analytics. Similarly, Barnsley is committed to young players and rarely signs someone over the age of 23. Again, this goes against the norm, as most clubs believe a team needs an older leader.
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Another aspect of the Moneyball approach is buying cheaper talent and selling them for large profits. Brentford FC is a team executing this, as seen with the club selling players like Ollie Watkins for a profit of more than £26 million.
In football, the teams that are investing are the ones moving. However, the success of Moneyball has demonstrated that investing means nothing if you’re not doing it correctly. Historically in baseball, valued player qualities were speed and contact. However, Moneyball proved on-base percentage was a better sign of offensive success. With that, it seems like it’s only a matter of time that European football clubs reevaluate the way they scout talent.